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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
TOP PICKS HIT
Our top two picks from week 7 hit, with both the Bengals and Seahawks easily covering. Congrats to those who cashed in! The Vikings just missed covering by a half point, while the Texans and Jets were both upset.
Week 8 has a few games with opening spreads containing tremendous value, and this week the difference-maker is all about the matchups. Two teams can seem relatively similar in both record and talent, but how they match up head-to-head can make all the difference. Recognizing that while taking advantage of a spread the books toss out as a public 'teaser' is the key to a winning bet. Be sure to read my Week 8 analysis to see which games have that unique value.
Week 8 selections
Pick Five
TB -2.5
JAX -10
PIT -3.5
DEN +1.5
LAC +6
Survivor
CIN
Game analysis
CAR at GB
PLAYABLE
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
3 / 5
Fair Side
GB -4
Projected score
CAR 23 – GB 27
The Play
GB -3.5
Playable Through
GB -3.5
Best Bet
NO
At first glance, it would appear there's a significant matchup advantage for Carolina. The Packers enter the week dead last in rushing production, which also happens to be the Panthers' biggest defensive liability. However, with star RB Josh Jacobs back in the fold, Green Bay's lack of production is misleading. I expect the Packers to exploit Carolina's run defense, and the short week will weigh against the Panthers, as they'll have less time to prepare. The line is about right, but there is some wiggle room at -3 ½, which I expect Green Bay to cover at home.
Teaser analysis
No advantage
BAL at BUF
PLAYABLE
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
3 / 5
Fair Side
BUF -1
Projected score
BAL 26 – BUF 27
The Play
BAL +3
Playable Through
BAL +3
Best Bet
NO
QB Josh Allen is a perfect 7-0 straight up coming off a bye week. I don't expect that to change with Buffalo at home. I do see Ravens RB Derek Henry exploiting a very vulnerable Bills run defense, however. By all indications, QB Lamar Jackson will start this game. Whether he has any lingering issues with the hamstring that kept him sidelined is the big question. If Jackson is 100%, I see this game as a toss up being won by which team has the final possession, so there'd be good value with the Ravens taking the 3 points. If Jackson is still hobbled, or Tyler Huntley gets the start, then this line will skyrocket in favor of the Bills. Stay tuned for updates ...
Teaser analysis
RAVENS +9 ½ is a must-add on your teaser parlay
Sunday Conclusion
While the market held steady at BILLS -3, it was announced that QB Lamar Jackson will start, having logged full practices Thursday and Friday. It's still a risk that Jackson is not 100%, but the full practices are encouraging. As such, I see this as a high scoring shootout, with the Ravens covering the 3 points.
Published to this archive:
IND at JAX
BET NOW
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
5 / 5
Fair Side
JAX -14
Projected score
IND 16 – JAX 30
The Play
JAX -10
Playable Through
JAX -13.5
Best Bet
CONFIRMED
The Colts are in the midst of a fire sale, having dealt star defender DeForest Buckner and All Pro OG Quenton Nelson. Accordingly, the line jumped from it's opening of Jaguars -7 and sits currently at Jaguars -9 ½. I expect the line to push further in favor of Jacksonville as the week progresses. As mentioned in my opener, the advantage here lies in the matchups. The Colts live and die by the running success of Jonathan Taylor, and the Jaguars are a brick wall against the run, allowing a league best of only 3.23 yards per carry. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and I STRONGLY suggest to BET NOW before the spread rises any further. This will be a safe play and a BEST BET unless the spread reaches -14.
Teaser analysis
If you have an opportunity to bet Jaguars -4 ½ for your teaser, jump on it!
Sunday Conclusion
The spread rose to -10, but fortunately held there. I see the well-rested Jaguars having an easy go of it at home against a team that lost two of it's three best players and may well have given up on the season. A confident BEST BET.
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TEN at CIN
PASS
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
1 / 5
Fair Side
CIN -13
Projected score
TEN 17 – CIN 30
The Play
N/A
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
The Bengals elite passing offense matches up against a Titans secondary that was scorched by the Browns last week. This game pits a Group B-borderline Group A team versus a group F team. Additionally, the Titans have a long standing road drought in this series, not having won a game in Cincinnati since 2008. Though the spread is in double digits, I don't see the Bengals having any trouble covering the -10, making this game very PLAYABLE. **UPDATE** Fire Sale! The Titans' trade of start DT Jeffery Simmons signals them waving the white flag on the 2026 season, resulting in the spread going from -10 to -11 ½. This game is still PLAYABLE provided the spread doesn't reach -13. **FRIDAY UPDATE** The spread continues to soar in favor of the Bengals. We're now at the threshold limit for value, which I placed at 12 ½ to begin the week. For those still interested in wagering the Bengals, I strongly suggest to BET NOW before the spread reaches -13, which would make this game a PASS.
Teaser analysis
BENGALS -4 ½ is a safe add on a teaser ticket. **UPDATE** BENGALS -6 ½ on a teaser is not nearly as attractive as the opening -4 ½, but it's still PLAYABLE. Should the teaser spread hit -7, I'd look elsewhere.
Sunday Conclusion
Bengals at -10 opening the week would have been a BEST BET. Unfortunately, the Titans' trading of star DT Jeffery Simmons mid-week led both the public and the sharps to pound Cincinnati, the result of which ended with a -12 ½ point spread to cover. There's always a chance the Titans don't even show up and get blown out, but I'm less enthusiastic about laying a half point shy of the Fair Side spread. Therefore, LEAN it remains. **UPDATE** The spread officially rose to -13 ½, making this game a PASS.
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CLE at PIT
BET NOW
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
5 / 5
Fair Side
PIT -7
Projected score
CLE 16 – PIT 23
The Play
PIT -3.5
Playable Through
PIT -6.5
Best Bet
CONFIRMED
The battle for the top spot in the AFC North is at stake, with the Steelers seeking revenge against the Browns for the early season loss in Cleveland. With both teams possessing elite pass rushes and both with suspect pass protection, the matchups are very similar. However, the Steelers hold a staggering 22 game home field winning streak against the Browns. The difference in this game might come down to the matchup of Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, who is playing at a Pro Bowl level, versus a suspect Browns run defense. Although the Browns always seem to play the Steelers tough, I expect the Steelers will prevail, and should cover the -3 ½. Should the spread hit -4, however, I'd call it a PASS. **UPDATE** After re-evaluating the historical trends on this matchup, I have drastically altered my take on the value present. Not only do the Steelers boast a 22 game home winning streak against the Browns, but also own a 7-3 record ATS. Also, the Wednesday injury reports heavily favor the Steelers. Combined with all the aformentioned data, I now consider this a BEST BET. FOOTNOTE: The UNDER has covered in 6 of the last 9 meetings between these teams.
Teaser analysis
Steelers +1 ½ is a safe wager.
Sunday Conclusion
Giving over key # 3 in what should be a relatively low scoring game is always a risky proposition, but I believe the Steelers incentive for revenge, home field advantage, the Steelers current trend of not only winning, but covering against the Browns in Pittsburgh, and the way the Steelers have been executing better offensively than they were at the time of their first meeting with Cleveland makes this a BEST BET.
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MIN at DET
PASS
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
1 / 5
Fair Side
DET -3
Projected score
MIN 20 – DET 23
The Play
N/A
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
The undefeated Vikings travel to Detroit for this divisional matchup. While the indivdual matchups tend to favor Minnesota, the Vikings have been winning by the narrowest of margins. If QB Jared Goff is protected against DC Brian Flores's relentless blitzes, then the home Lions will knock the Vikings from the undefeated ranks. As such, I see LEAN value on Detroit -3. Should the line hit 4, then it becomes a PASS.
Teaser analysis
No advantage
Sunday Conclusion
-3 has held all week, and the more I consider it, the more I'm inclined to believe Detroit will win this game by a field goal, hence my downgrading the game to a PASS.
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LV at NYJ
PLAYABLE
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
3 / 5
Fair Side
LV -2
Projected score
LV 23 – NYJ 21
The Play
LV +1.5
Playable Through
LV -1.5
Best Bet
NO
The battle of two middling teams could once again come down to matchups. The Jets are vulnerable to the run, and the Raiders will make RB Ashton Jeanty the thrust of their offense. Though the Raiders are on a four game losing streak, this is the game they should right the ship, especially against their former QB Geno Smith serving as extra motivation. Raiders +1 ½ is very PLAYABLE.
Teaser analysis
RAIDERS +6 ½ is a safe addition to your teaser.
Sunday Conclusion
This line hasn't budged all week. I still feel the Raiders are the right side.
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ATL at TB
BET NOW
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
5 / 5
Fair Side
TB -6
Projected score
ATL 20 – TB 26
The Play
TB -2.5
Playable Through
TB -5.5
Best Bet
CONFIRMED
This game represents the ultimate in matchup advantage. The Falcons offense is predicated entirely on the success of star RB Bijan Robinson, while the Bucs boast the league's #1 defense against the run. Tampa Bay will key on Robinson and force QB Michael Penix into predictable passing situations. Conversely, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is back and healthy for the home Bucs. I believe this line is way off, and we should take advantage before the spread corrects. BET NOW/BEST BET.
Teaser analysis
BUCS +3 ½ is an automatic add to a teaser ticket.
Sunday Conclusion
Surprisingly, the sharps haven't weighed in on this game. I still believe the game will go off at -3, but the current -2 ½ represents tremendous betting value.
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ARI at DAL
PASS
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
1 / 5
Fair Side
DAL -7
Projected score
ARI 24 – DAL 31
The Play
N/A
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
This line seems spot-on, with perhaps a lean on Dallas since it's a half point shy of important #7. Should the spread move to 7, then the game goes from LEAN to PASS. **UPDATE** The spread has hit -7, so this game is a PASS.
Teaser analysis
COWBOYS + ½ is a safe addition to a teaser.
Sunday Conclusion
Since the spread has reached my FAIR SIDE, there's even less reason to have interest in betting this game.
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LAC at LAR
PLAYABLE
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
3 / 5
Fair Side
LAR -4
Projected score
LAC 20 – LAR 24
The Play
LAC +6
Playable Through
LAC +4.5
Best Bet
NO
The winless Chargers are coming off their bye with coaching jobs on the line as they take on their cross-town rivals. Having had an entire extra week to prepare, I have to believe Head Coach Jim Harbaugh will have game-planned enough to at least keep this relatively close. The opening line was Rams -7, but quickly went to -6 ½, indicating sharp action on the Chargers. While it's tough to trust betting on the Chargers given their 0-6 start, they may be viewing this game as their 'Super Bowl', though my said lack of trust prevents me from placing this game in BEST BET territory. However, it is PLAYABLE provided the spread doesn't shrink to -4.
Teaser analysis
Better options elsewhere
Sunday Conclusion
The sharps beat this line down to Rams -6, and unless things get crazy before kickoff, this game is very PLAYABLE at that number.
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NE at MIA
PASS
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
1 / 5
Fair Side
NE -7
Projected score
NE 27 – MIA 20
The Play
N/A
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
The Patriots are coming off a mini-bye, having played last Thursday night, giving them a significant rest advantage. However, South Florida has traditionally been a house of horrors for New England. The Dolphins have won four straight home games against the Patriots, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups. Given the conflicting data, the spread is probably accurate, so I see no value or betting advantage here. Additionally, the current spread surpasses key # 7. PASS.
Teaser analysis
Lean play on Dolphins +13 ½, but there's always a chance they could be blown out.
Sunday Conclusion
Action on the Dolphins has taken this spread down to -7, though it's unclear as to whether this is sharp or public action. I'm still uninterested in betting this game, given the conflicting variables.
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KC at DEN
PLAYABLE
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
3 / 5
Fair Side
DEN -2
Projected score
KC 21 – DEN 23
The Play
DEN +1.5
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
The home Broncos will be out for blood in this matchup for having been embarrassed by their divisional rivals in week 1. The Broncos looked ill-prepared to start the season, but are riding a three game winning streak heading into week 8. Additionally, the Broncos will be getting All Pro CB Patrick Surtain back from injury. As such, I expect Denver to win the game outright. It's a shame we're not getting a full 3 points, which is what keeps this game from landing in BEST BET territory. I also have reservations about betting against QB Patrick Mahomes coming off a loss. It's worth mentioning that the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Teaser analysis
BRONCOS +6 ½ is a must-add
Sunday Conclusion
I have a gut feeling the Broncos will pull off the upset, but getting only 1 ½ points is a risky betting proposition. As mentioned earlier, had the Broncos been getting a full 3 points, this would be a BEST BET.
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PHI at WAS
PASS
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
1 / 5
Fair Side
WAS -5
Projected score
PHI 16 – WAS 21
The Play
N/A
Playable Through
N/A
Best Bet
NO
These are two injury-riddled teams on downward trends, making an accurate handicap difficult. Given the bounty of opportunities elsewhere this week, I recommend a PASS on this game entirely.
Teaser analysis
PASS
Sunday Conclusion
Action on this game has taken the spread to Commanders -6 ½, but I still recommend a PASS here.
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CHI at SEA
LEAN
Kickoff not supplied
Rating
2 / 5
Fair Side
SEA -4
Projected score
CHI 20 – SEA 24
The Play
SEA -3
Playable Through
SEA -3.5
Best Bet
NO
This game could come down to Bears QB Caleb Williams' pocket mobility versus Seattle's rush. Given that Williams has recently come off a hamstring injury coupled with Seattle's tremendous home field advantage, I see a LEAN play on the Seahawks giving 3.
Teaser analysis
BEARS +9 ½ seems like a safe addition.
Monday source — CHI at SEA
The sharps haven't touched this game, as the line has held at -3 all week. I can't say I'm interested in betting this accurately priced game either, though I see a slight LEAN on Seattle giving, if you're so inclined to.
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